Relationship between Crude Oil Export and Economic Growth in Selected AEC countries (Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand) Using the Panel Bayesian VAR model

This paper examined the economic impact of crude oil exportation on selected ASEAN countries (Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand) from 2008 – 2017. The objective of the study is to look at the impact of oil exportation on the economic growth in these selected countries. Secondary data were collected based on the model used in the research work and unit root test was conducted on the data to test their stationary, after which Panel Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (PBVAR) model was adopted to examine the relationship between them and impulse response was also employed for the analysis. The result obtained from the empirical analysis shows that the higher performance of the export and oil rents are the major influencing factors for the economic growth of the selected AEC countries. Keywords: Crude oil export, selected AEC countries, Panel Bayesian VAR